Just take a look at the upcoming elections. Women’s vote will play a decisive role in the UP elections to be held in early 2027. In this, Yogi Adityanath will try to return to power for the third consecutive time. However, the real target is the 2029 Lok Sabha elections. The unity of the India alliance had limited the BJP to 240 seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, which is its lowest figure since 2014. At the same time, Congress believes that victory in the 2026 Kerala Assembly elections will give it a strong electoral hold in South India. It already has governments in Karnataka and Telangana, while it is a coalition partner in Tamil Nadu. If Kerala also goes in its favour, the NDA alliance will be out of power in four southern states except Andhra Pradesh (where its ally TDP is in power). In 2027, Congress will also hope to take the number of states across the country to six by adding Aam Aadmi Party-ruled Punjab along with Himachal Pradesh in North India to its tally. Congress leaders believe that this will put Rahul Gandhi in a strong position to challenge Narendra Modi in 2029. With the India alliance narrowing around the Congress, the party will believe it has a real chance of defeating the BJP-led NDA in the next Lok Sabha elections. To reverse this trend, BJP has adopted two strategies. The first is to lay more emphasis on Hindutva. The party has ended its alleged differences with the Sangh. She no longer underestimates India’s Hindu majoritarianism. BJP’s second big bet is the demographic group of women. BJP had got a significant share of women’s votes in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. In case the vote-share difference between NDA and India alliance reduces, women’s vote can give a decisive edge to NDA. In view of this, Home Minister Amit Shah has started crafting the future BJP-narrative. After the Constitution Amendment Bill could not be passed in the Lok Sabha, he therefore warned the opposition that wherever you go to ask for votes, you will have to face the anger of women. The India Alliance also realizes that the BJP has acquired a powerful electoral narrative to appeal to the women voter pool. Now the state and national level elections will revolve around two conflicting narratives. The BJP will accuse the opposition of failing women by defeating a bill that would have empowered 272 women MPs in the proposed 816-seat Lok Sabha in 2029. At the same time, Congress, SP, RJD, Trinamool and other opposition parties will now be forced to increase their dependence on minority votes. How important Muslim votes are for the opposition can be gauged from the fact that almost half of the Congress’s 21 percent vote-share in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections was expected to come from minority votes. A recently published study analyzed the importance of Muslim votes for Trinamool in West Bengal. The study concluded that Muslim votes were decisive in Trinamool’s victory in the last three assembly elections. The study identified five districts where large Muslim population gave a clear lead to Trinamool: Murshidabad, Malda, North Dinapur, Birbhum and South 24 Parganas. Due to minority voters in these districts, Trinamool’s vote share ranged between 48 to 36.7 percent. Will the failure of the Constitution Amendment Bill impact the West Bengal Assembly elections to be held on April 23 and 29? Probably not, because most voters have already made up their minds. But in the coming elections, this election arrow of BJP focusing on women may hit the target. BJP is confident that by terming the opposition as anti-women, it will be able to increase its appeal among women voters. This appeal is already strong, as BJP-led governments have implemented several policy measures in favor of women. (These are the author’s own views)
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Minhaj Merchant’s column: Will the election arrow regarding women hit the target?
