It has now been two months since the US-Iran war. Encouraged by the Venezuelan experience, the US thought that a surprise attack on Iran and a strategy of assassinating its top officials, including its supreme leader, would end the war in a matter of days. But the strategy did not succeed. There has been a change of power in Iran, but now the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is ruling there. Iran has two parallel military structures. ‘Artesh’, like the regular army, handles conventional defense, while the IRGC’s job is to protect the revolution. One army reports to the Supreme Leader through the President, while the other directly to him. The ‘hostage crisis’ emerged after the initial US-Israeli bombing. Iran virtually held the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and the Strait of Hormuz hostage. There were two options to deal with this situation. First, military escalation means sending troops to Iranian soil and attacks on Iranian structures. And second, diplomatic agreement. Trump has chosen the second path and offered Iran major economic concessions. In return, it has demanded handing over its enriched uranium reserves and opening of Hormuz. Contrary to Trump’s claims, Iran did not accept the proposals because it felt they were unreliable and their demands amounted to Iran’s surrender. What the US is offering is worse than the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and the proposals that were made in the Oman-mediated talks before the war. Iran also feels that there is no compulsion to accept it now, because it has already endured the change of power. At the same time, it has also learned that closing the Strait of Hormuz is a very effective weapon in economic warfare. At present the way forward can be guessed. America will probably continue the talks without sending troops. As per Trump style, there will be some threats, some bombings are possible. But time is now running out for America. Before launching the attack, America should have understood what a military operation could achieve. Iran cannot compete with America in terms of military capability, but it has important capabilities like ballistic missiles and proxy networks. America should also have known that due to the lack of internal unity and organized opposition of the Islamic regime, change of power there is not easy. Also, it required a ground military operation, which America did not want. US-Israeli military attacks have certainly caused considerable damage to Iran’s nuclear program, but it cannot eliminate scientific knowledge and human capital. History is witness to the fact that countries that want nuclear weapons somehow get them. At best, America and Israel can postpone it for some time. Similarly, Iran’s missile and drone arsenal can be reduced, but is difficult to eliminate. In particular, the technical knowledge and industrial infrastructure supporting this weapons program. The truth is that America and Israel made a big mistake by killing Khamenei and other leaders. Now Trump himself is saying that the leadership in Iran is scattered and there is no one for talks. Extending the ceasefire and tightening the maritime blockade may buy time for America, but this will not make Iran bow down. It may take months to see the effect of the blockade. Trump doesn’t have that much patience. There are also elections in November. (These are the author’s own views)
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Manoj Joshi’s column: Trump has little time left for war
