It is now clear from all assessments that the war against Iran has proved to be a strategic failure for the US-Israel alliance. This war was not launched on 28 February with the aim of recapturing Hormuz; At that time it was already open. Nor was it intended to reduce Iran’s nuclear capability; Because Iran had already agreed to this in the talks mediated by Qatar a few days before the war was started. This war was waged with the aim of toppling the Islamic regime of Iran and under this, Ayatollah Khamenei was assassinated. Whereas the reality is that till now Khamenei had stopped Iran from making nuclear weapons. Now with Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader, the regime—despite heavy losses in the war—is more organized and confident than ever. The war exposed Iran’s ability to block traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and its ability to compete with the world’s two leading military powers, the United States and Israel. Using a combination of missiles and drones fired from deep underground bases, Iran was able to attack Israel, cause serious damage to US bases in the Gulf region, and also harm America’s Gulf allies. Now, whichever way you look at it, it is likely that we will see a stronger Iran economically, politically and regionally. This war has exposed the limitations of the traditional US security architecture in the Gulf region. For decades, US bases spread across the region have served as a guarantee of stability and deterrence, but today their effectiveness no longer appears to be the same. Already, many Gulf Cooperation Council countries are beginning to reevaluate their security relations and stance toward Iran. Iran, two-thirds the size of India, has ample natural resources such as oil and gas, as well as human resources in the form of an educated middle class. Iran’s influence has so far been limited due to its conflict with the US. It began in 1979, when a political coup removed the Shah, a US ally, from power. Internal turmoil and external sanctions, as well as mismanagement of the economy, have prevented Iran from reaching its full potential as a regional power. But now there is an opportunity for change. However, major obstacles still remain. The biggest obstacle is Israel itself, which cannot accept Iran, which has ballistic missile capability and is in alliance with Hezbollah-Houthi. Israel had encouraged the US to start the war by claiming that the Islamic regime would rapidly collapse, but instead it set off a series of events that have actually strengthened Iran’s strategic position. Given the two-phase talks, there is no guarantee that Iran will actually sign on to US terms on the nuclear issue. The US wants Iran to ship all of its enriched uranium reserves out of the country and destroy its centrifuges. Iran is ready to close two of its three uranium enrichment sites, but not all of them. Iran says that under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) it has committed not to make nuclear weapons, but it has the right to enrich uranium for its energy needs. Trump aims to make parts of the nuclear deal stricter than the one that was negotiated during the Obama administration in 2015 and which he abandoned in 2018. But the situation is difficult. Since this issue will be discussed only in the second phase of the peace agreement, the big question is whether the US will again have the capacity to threaten Iran militarily if things do not go as per its wish? (These are the author’s own views)
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Manoj Joshi’s column: Iran has become stronger despite all the losses of the war
