Population Decline Across India, Not Just South

Neeraj Kaushal, Professor at Columbia University

We need reliable population estimates to better shape plans. But India’s demographic projections – prepared by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) itself – tell a worrying story. These estimates could potentially prove to be wrong in the context of 100 million people and over a period of several decades. The blame falls on the government, which did not conduct the census in 2021 and kept postponing it year after year thereafter. The last census was conducted 15 years ago. Therefore all estimates have been based on an outdated and irrelevant census data.

In the process, India has left out 100 million potential future citizens – including the young consumers and workers who were supposed to drive India’s economic growth and contribute to making the country a developed nation. The demographic dividend that we had been waiting for for so long seems to be suddenly disappearing. Estimates based on old and obsolete data have many risks and side effects.

According to UNDP’s 2024 projections based on the 2011 census, India’s population was to peak at 1.7 billion in the early 2060s. But new projections based on the recently released Sample Registration System (SRS) fertility data for 2024 indicate that India’s population will reach a peak of about 1.6 billion much earlier.

This will not happen in the 2060s but around the mid-2040s. After this it will begin to decline, and this decline will probably be more rapid than the rate at which the population grew. Despite being a lower-middle income country, India’s rapid demographic transition matches the experience of many rich countries. We have the same concerns as the rich countries, but they do not have prosperity.

According to the SRS 2024 report, based on a sample of 89 lakh people, India’s total fertility rate – the average number of children born to a woman in her lifetime – has fallen to 1.9, below the level required to maintain a stable population. India’s demographic transition has progressed so rapidly that eight states in the country have fertility rates of 1.5 or less – similar to levels in Scandinavian countries.

Now that we have new data, they are clearing up many of the misconceptions. The SRS 2024 report refutes the widespread perception that India’s fertility trends divide the country into two clearly distinct regions – southern states with low fertility rates and northern states with high fertility rates.

The reality is that except for four states in the Hindi belt, the fertility rate in the entire country has reached below the replacement rate. The states with the lowest fertility rates are spread across different parts of the country: Delhi (1.2), Jammu and Kashmir (1.5), Punjab (1.5) and Himachal (1.5) in the north and north-west; Bengal (1.3), Odisha (1.7) and Assam (2.0) in the east and northeast; Maharashtra (1.5), Gujarat (1.8) in the west; Kerala (1.4), Tamil Nadu (1.3), Andhra (1.5) and Karnataka (1.5) in the south.

There has been a decline in fertility rates in all the states for which SRS has released data. Therefore, it is possible that even if the government uses population projections based on SRS 2024 instead of 2011 census in the delimitation process, there will not be much change in the results. Nevertheless, it would be more appropriate to use the most recent data available.

It is likely that India will end this century with a population of less than 1 billion. India’s population structure in the year 2000 resembled an ideal pyramid, with a large young population at the base and a relatively small older population at the top. But by 2100 we will have a shrunken foundation.

New figures are clearing many misconceptions. The SRS 2024 report refutes the notion that India’s fertility trends divide the country into two clearly distinct regions – southern states with low fertility rates and northern states with high fertility rates. (These are the author’s own views)

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