6 days ago
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Shekhar Gupta, Editor-in-Chief, ‘The Print’
The war that Israel and America are waging against Iran was started in a very dramatic manner. But today, the way those who claimed to win this war – especially America – are stuck in a deadlock is equally dramatic. The element of ‘theatrics’ lay in the assassination of Iran’s top spiritual, military, ideological and intellectual leadership and the element of stalemate lay in Iran’s stubborn refusal to accept defeat. Some questions arise from all this.
Can assassinations guarantee the destruction of your enemy? Could there be a more sensible approach than this? Has the Israel-US alliance forgotten its special trick? Does the history of other such wars teach us anything else? What lessons can be learned from India’s experiences? Except for the first question, the rest of the answers are yes.
Israel has been fighting for its survival for a long time. He will be disappointed because the government in Iran has not changed. But Iran has been weakened, its nuclear program has suffered a major setback and its missile system has been largely destroyed – all great successes at low cost. The weakening of Hezbollah in Lebanon is also an advantage for it.
If Israel wanted some time for itself given the situation around it, this was a good strategy. But what about America? He wanted to change the regime in Iran, end its nuclear program and assure security to the Gulf countries (GCC). He could not succeed in all three.
The same government remained in place in Iran, but now more fundamentalist people have come to power. As far as uranium is concerned, Iran is not ready to return it or bring its nuclear program under control. Its missile launchers have definitely reduced, but the systems to stop them have also reduced. Whenever Trump or his ‘Secretary of War’ Pete Hegseth say that Iran’s navy and air force are destroyed, there is laughter. In fact, Iran had only a small navy and no proper air force.
And what happened to the Arab countries? Except for the small but courageous UAE, the rest of the Arab countries appeared scared and avoiding war. They have been dependent on western countries for a long time. He allowed Israel to use his airspace and kept talking only formally on the issue of Palestine. Some countries have been supporting both.
Like Qatar, which on one hand has allowed America to build its biggest military base and on the other hand has also maintained relations with ‘Muslim Brotherhood’, Hamas and Iran. Saudi Arabia had full confidence in the American military. Now all these countries are in shock. The ‘GCC’ countries faced attack for the first time in modern history, and they did not get complete security.
If you look carefully, this war in West Asia is not just between Israel and Iran. In fact, this is also a battle for influence between Iran and the Arab countries of the Gulf, in which Israel is, in a way, an intermediate actor. In large and poor Muslim countries – especially the ‘Global South’ – Iran’s Islam is considered truer than that of the rich Gulf countries. This is not limited to Shias only. Many people consider Iran as a country that is fighting America and Israel for Palestine, even if it itself suffers losses. This thinking is completely different from his opinion about the Gulf countries.
The ‘GCC’ countries are threatened not only by Iran’s military power but also by the fear that it may provoke their people. And now this fear may increase further because many people are considering this as the first major reaction against the West after Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria.
Gulf countries fear that their own people might revolt and a new ‘Arab Spring’ might start. Due to this fear, Saudi Arabia reactivated the defense agreement with Pakistan and included its army in it. But Pakistan will hardly be seen fighting against Iran or Iraq. He will be there for the money.
Was assassinating Iran’s leadership the right strategy? If the leader had remained alive, America would have gained an advantage in the negotiations. Ultimately in war one has to negotiate. That’s why top leaders are usually not targeted.
The conclusion is that America’s goals were not met and it now has less both the strength and the will to restart the war. Hegseth says Iran wants a ceasefire, but Trump seems to be the one desperate for a deal.
(These are the author’s own views)
