Shekhar Gupta Column | Congress Revival Prospect & BJP Political Strategy

Shekhar Gupta, Editor-in-Chief, ‘The Print’

Recently I had written in one of my columns that despite being in minority in the Lok Sabha, BJP is taking the country towards a one-party system. But there is another aspect to it also. This may also pave the way for the possibility of the emergence of another party, provided this party captures the remaining vote-bank of the regional parties that the BJP is trying to acquire.

The irony is that the BJP’s success may give the Congress an opportunity to strengthen its resolve to emerge as the only pan-India challenge to it. I know that this belief will be met with a lot of doubt, in fact people who are disappointed with Congress may even make fun of it. But BJP knows that the only big challenge against it is Congress.

In the party’s election speeches, Congress and the Gandhi family are attacked the most. This trend has continued even in those states where Congress is zero. For example, in Andhra Pradesh it was repeatedly said that Congress had boycotted the organization of Pran Pratishtha in Ram temple, whereas in 2024, Congress had got only 2.74 percent votes there.

A question was asked in Odisha whether ‘Shehzade’ is going to repeat the story of 2014? Questions were asked referring to the cash recovered from the house of a domestic servant of a Congress minister in Jharkhand. In Bihar too, Congress’s “appeasement” politics were repeatedly attacked. In Bengal, Congress was declared an ally of Trinamool and it was said that both these parties were creating hurdles in the way of 33% reservation for women. Even if municipal elections are being held and there is no sign of Congress there, still you will find BJP attacking Congress.

The biggest test of this belief in the monsoon session of Parliament will be whether the BJP succeeds in securing a two-thirds majority; And whether it succeeds in getting the Constitution amended and the Women’s Reservation Bill passed to increase the size of Parliament and create new delimitation of constituencies. Starting from 240 seats, gathering a figure of 362 or above for two-thirds majority would be a political miracle.

Elections are to be held in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab early next year and later in Gujarat. Next year, elections will be held in Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. I am counting only those states which have more than 10 MPs in the Lok Sabha. In most of these states, Congress will be the main rival of BJP.

Therefore, the hope is that BJP’s anti-Congress noise will become louder. But BJP is also thinking of 2029 and beyond. And who is she seeing as her future rival? Of the regional parties which had reduced it to 240, most of them, except SP, have been eliminated. DMK is preserving its ideology, but BJP has no strength in Tamil Nadu. TDP has formed a solid alliance in Andhra. His rival YS Jagan Mohan Reddy’s party is not going to compete with BJP. When so many components of the India camp have been injured, the future is both a new challenge and a new opportunity for the Congress. Can it take a bold leap as the BJP’s sole or almost sole rival? Congress’s 21 percent votes seem certain. BJP got about 37 percent votes in 2024.

If Congress can get even 5 percent more votes than 21 percent, it can spoil the game for BJP. You can assume that most of these additional votes will come from BJP. If Congress gets 30-32 percent votes, BJP will be reduced to 200 seats. Then the form of NDA led by him will change. Of course, all these are only theoretical things, but BJP is also aware of them.

Since we are talking theoretical matters, it would be appropriate to cite academic sources. See the research by Edgar Saar and Pelin Ayan Musil published in the July 2026 issue of the ‘Journal of Democracy’ published by Johns Hopkins University Press. Its title contradicts the popular belief in India that alliance is the only way to defeat the party in power.

The authors of the research paper say that the consensus among scholars and strategists that only pre-election alliances can dethrone the dominant ruling parties is misleading. Evidence of this are two surprising changes of power – one, in Hungary, in which a single party, the Tisza Party, ousted Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party from power; Secondly, a landslide victory for the Republican People’s Party (CHP) in Turkiye in 2024.

In Hungary, Peter Magyar formed a new party and cornered Orban on the issue of corruption. Magyar is as far-right as Orbán. In Turkey, the CHP reshaped itself and won over a wide range of opposition voters. This broad opposition electorate is present in every democracy, even in India. The opposition has been forming multi-party alliances to consolidate this vote. Can Congress dare to try this on its own?

We have seen in Sri Lanka and Nepal how even a powerful party can be ousted from power. Can Congress emerge as a new avatar of itself? A Left-Right conflict will not work because the BJP shows more left leanings than the Congress on issues of public welfare, distributive economics, public sector, subsidies etc.

Congress will have to bring new ideas and agenda. How will Congress deal with all the issues? What will be the foreign policy, strategy and economics of Congress in view of the changed world? She says that the economic growth figures given by Modi are fake. So how will Congress bring India’s economic growth rate to 8 percent?

There is a direct contest in the upcoming assembly elections also… Elections are to be held in UP, Punjab and Gujarat next year. Next year, elections will be held in Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. In most of these states, Congress will be the main rival of BJP. Therefore, BJP’s anti-Congress noise will only get louder. (These are the author’s own views)

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