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Syed Ata Hasnain Governor of Bihar and former Commander of Kashmir Corps
When the Taliban took over Afghanistan in August 2021, it seemed that Pakistan had succeeded in its geopolitical efforts. Pakistan had spent political capital, intelligence resources and military efforts for more than four decades to gain a strategic advantage in Afghanistan.
Observers felt that Pakistan would now strengthen its hold in Afghanistan, secure the western border and strategically refocus its attention towards India. But in less than five years, events took an unexpected turn.
Today, Pakistan faces extremist violence led by a hostile government in Afghanistan, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and deteriorating border security. The question is, how did Pakistan lose strategic control so soon after achieving its biggest geopolitical success?
At its root lies the century-long dispute over the Durand Line, which was determined in 1893 during the British Raj. This disputed border dividing Pashtun tribal areas also divides communities with similar ethnic identity. Afghan governments also did not accept this border. In fact, in 1947, Afghanistan was the only country which opposed giving UN membership to Pakistan on this issue.
Pakistan believed that because it had supported the Taliban for decades, its government would eventually accept the Durand Line. But his assessment proved wrong. Despite being Islamist, the Taliban is also influenced by Pashtun nationalism. In such a situation, accepting Pakistani claims seriously weakens its domestic legitimacy.
For decades, Taliban commanders were dominated by Pakistan’s ISI, as they relied on safe havens in Pakistan during the insurgency against NATO. But when an extremist movement gains power, its nature changes. Before August 2021, Taliban needed Pakistan, but after that the situation reversed and Pakistan started needing Taliban. Pakistan failed to understand this important change. The high-profile visit of Pakistan’s intelligence chief to Kabul soon after the Taliban took power was a symbol of this misplaced confidence. And this is where a major mistake in assessing the situation began.
The first result of this change was that TTP started raising its head again. Although TTP is a separate organization from the Afghan Taliban, it shares its ideological roots and tribal ties with the Taliban. The two organizations have a long history of mutual cooperation in cross-border battlefields.
After returning to power, the Afghan Taliban rapidly expanded safe havens for the TTP. Due to ideological unity, it is difficult for the Taliban government to take action against its fellow Islamist fighters merely to satisfy Pakistan. Dissatisfaction has also increased regarding Pakistan’s attempts to dictate Afghan policy.
Pakistan’s cross-border attacks further deepened mistrust, creating a favorable environment for TTP’s anti-Pakistan activities. As relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan deteriorated, India has regained significant diplomatic influence.
Pakistan’s policy of categorizing terrorists into ‘good’ and ‘bad’ has been exposed. For decades, Pakistan has supported terrorist organizations that served its strategic goals in Afghanistan and India. (These are the author’s own views)
