Recently, there was a lot of discussion that Narendra Modi has broken Jawaharlal Nehru’s record of remaining the elected Prime Minister of India for the longest period. A lot of comparisons are being made between Modi and Nehru as to who has worked more for the country. But it would be better if we look to the future rather than to what has been done so far. Because Modi’s work is not finished yet. There are still three years left in his tenure and he will be a candidate in 2029 also. it’s sure. And who knows, we may still be there in 2034! Like any Prime Minister who has been in power for so long, Modi has also faced crises. The three crises were global: Covid, Ukraine and the war in West Asia. Another challenge for him is how to deal with the remaining term of Trump. Till now Modi has been facing them with equanimity. Taking cues from America’s friendly countries, they have been adopting a policy of remaining calm and not getting involved in any provocation. Going forward the transaction aspect will become prominent. India can handle it. The war in West Asia has made it clear that India has chosen one side, that is: Israel, America and UAE. He will never say this openly but his actions make it clear. While an interim trade agreement with the US may be signed anytime soon, trade relations and trade will continue with the active support of India’s corporate leaders. Generally, you can assume that no matter how much Trump provokes, no matter how much Modi’s critics taunt, Modi will not succumb to provocation. But a bigger crisis may emerge sooner or later. After all, the Pakistanis have done so much for Trump that they are not going to be satisfied with just praising their Field Marshal. As a reward, they may also want the US to mention the Kashmir issue – even if vaguely, in the form of a post on ‘Truth Social’. The Field Marshal’s economy is in great trouble and his western front is on fire. They need to get rid of all this. Munir may see this relief in the re-emergence of the Kashmir issue. How will Modi deal with this challenge? It’s time to deal with it. For this, strategic patience will have to be maintained for about two and a half years. Justifying this patience, and even maintaining it, requires strategic (military) strength. If Modi looks at his last 12 years, and forgets Nehru and 1962 for a while, he will have to admit that he has not spent enough on defence. Even the money that was available could not be spent fully due to stubborn corrosion in the acquisition pipeline. Many rusts still exist. Many reforms are about to be implemented, especially those opening doors to the private sector, but their results will take time to be seen. Till then, there should be preparedness to take immediate action, because Munir can become an attacker at any time. This requires long-term plans of six months, two years and five years. Economy is the foundation of all strategic and tactical forces. For a long time, India has been immersed in the solace that it is the fastest growing major economy. This is not enough for a country with such a large population which is oscillating between 144th to 149th position in the world in terms of per capita income. India should perform better than this. The Prime Minister should also remember his promise of ‘minimum government’ and his statement during the pandemic that ‘being in business is not the government’s business’, that the government would exit from all sectors except a few strategic matters. But in the past years, the opposite has been happening. On the contrary, many new PSUs (government undertakings) have been created. Whenever this government has been in trouble, it has shown the ability to reverse its wrong steps. This potential is highlighted by discussions of several ‘FTAs’ (Free Trade Agreements), withdrawal of tax on foreign investment in bonds and now (after the repeal of all previous treaties) a new, liberal ‘BIT’ (Bilateral Investment Treaty). If a government learns from the crisis and shows readiness to change its policies so dramatically, then it is a good sign. But India needs many such steps. For example, in simple matters like mining, hydrocarbon exploration, urbanization, solar panels on rooftops. Even Pakistan is ahead of us in this matter. This should have been enough to promote the ‘PM Surya Ghar Yojana’, which was announced by the Prime Minister in February 2024. Growth rate coupled with Hindutva can still win elections. But this would be a below potential performance by India. The last challenge in this list should be political. Starting with a minority of 240 seats in the Lok Sabha, the Modi-Shah duo has shown remarkable momentum and succeeded in turning India into a near-one-party system. But there is no stability in politics. Much of this power has been gained by riding on the shoulders of new allies or by creating fragmentation among many smaller parties. It may also happen that the patience of an ally may wear thin and a Chief Minister may create a major crisis due to the ‘talents’ who have been appointed to the throne in the state capitals. And, no one in BJP may utter the word ‘successor’ right now, but as 2029 approaches, the voice of a kind of ‘primary’ (pre-selection) may be raised within the party. In 2034, there will be at least four leaders aged between fifty and sixty who can be contenders at that time. Due to the condition of the opposition today, a political challenge to the BJP may emerge from within. Better performance than present… Many reforms are about to be implemented, especially those opening doors to the private sector, but their results will take time to be seen. For this we need long term plans. Economy is the foundation of all strategic and tactical forces. In such a situation, we should perform better than at present. (These are the author’s own views)
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Shekhar Gupta’s column: Do not ignore the challenges of the future
