About seven years ago, I had written an article titled: ‘Do Muslims hold any importance for BJP?’ Recent election results from states – especially Bengal and Assam – where Muslim voters constitute more than 30% of the population – show that this issue has become even bigger. Politically, the conclusion is that Muslims matter much less to BJP today than in 2019. This time in Bengal and Assam, BJP won two-thirds of the seats without fielding a single Muslim candidate. On the other hand, out of the 24 candidates won by the opposition in Assam, 22 are Muslims. Among these also, out of 19 winning candidates of Congress, 18 are Muslims. Of the 293 new MLAs in Bengal, 40 are Muslims, of which 34 are from TMC. That means, out of the total 80 winning candidates of TMC, 45 percent are Muslims. This means that in the two states where the Muslim population is highest (Jammu and Kashmir is no longer a state), Muslims are out of power. The division between BJP and secular parties on Hindu-Muslim basis has become clear. Of the 102 new UDF MLAs in Kerala, 30 are Muslims and 29 are Christians. The secular camp may be relieved that at least in Kerala, Muslims are in power, but this relief is tempered by the fear that the BJP will now try to influence Hindu voters by calling it a minority government. If seen at the national level, there are a total of 24 Muslim MPs in the 18th Lok Sabha, i.e. only 4.42 percent, whereas the population of Muslim voters in the country is more than 15 percent. There were 22 Muslim MPs in the 16th Lok Sabha and 27 in the 17th Lok Sabha. Whereas in 1980, 49 and in 1984, 45 Muslim MPs were elected. Then their percentages were 9 and 8.3 respectively. The number of Muslim MPs in the Lok Sabha has often been around 5 per cent, but they have always got good representation at the Centre. Even Sikandar Bakht was a minister in the Vajpayee government. Muslims have reached positions ranging from President, Vice President, Deputy Speaker of the Lok Sabha to key positions in the army and intelligence agencies, but today they are not holding any such position. There is no Muslim Chief Minister today. Jammu and Kashmir is now a Union Territory. There is only one Muslim Governor – Syed Ata Hasnain in Bihar. Among the nearly 100 secretaries of the Central Government, there is only one Muslim – Kamran Rizvi – who is the Secretary of the Heavy Engineering Department. Among the 32 judges of the Supreme Court, there is only one Muslim judge – Justice Ehsanuddin Amanullah. The last Muslim Chief Justice of India was Justice AM Ahmadi, who retired on 24 March 1997. Seeing all this, it may seem that Indian Muslims have been sidelined, but this thinking needs to be reconsidered. The number of Muslims is increasing in fields like medicine, law, education, science, software, banking, entertainment and media. Their selection in civil services and army has also increased. Therefore the problem is not that Muslims are being driven out from every area. The real problem is that their representation in politics is continuously decreasing. In 1996, the Vajpayee government lasted for 13 days and in 1999 it fell by one vote. Then BJP leader Balbir Punj was angry that parties dependent on Muslim votes were not accepting BJP. He believed that Muslims were deciding who would rule India and who would not, but now this situation has changed. These facts point to three major conclusions. First, the BJP now wants to present the opposition or secular parties of the BJP as Muslim parties, even though their leaders are Hindus. This creates an environment of Hindus versus everyone else, which turns into politics of 80 percent versus 20 percent. This is the most beneficial situation for BJP. BJP also works among Christians in selected areas. He got this opportunity in Goa and Kerala. BJP has both patience and time. In the north-east he has established comfortable relations with the Christian tribes. There he never demanded a ban on beef. Even now some secular parties are dependent on Muslim votes, but they have become so cautious that they avoid even speaking openly in support of Muslims. For example, the Aam Aadmi Party government in Delhi maintained silence during the Shaheen Bagh movement and the riots that followed. Due to this, the responsibility of saving secularism has fallen on the Muslims. This is not only difficult and impractical, but also wrong. Today Muslims are asked to vote only for the candidate who can defeat the BJP. The hope behind this is that this will provide them security. This is very weak thinking for a strong secular democracy. The Sachar Committee report also shows that Muslims did not benefit from this. Now secular parties will have to form such a big alliance with Hindus that they can garner the vote percentage which will lead to victory. Earlier, the parties of Hindi belt used to achieve victory by dividing Hindus on the basis of caste, but BJP has broken that politics. If Muslims form their own separate party, it will only benefit BJP and its strength will increase. After Jinnah, the Muslims of India never considered any Muslim leader as their most trusted leader. He has been relying on the Nehru-Gandhi family, Yadav leaders of UP-Bihar, Mamata Banerjee and Hindu leaders of Left parties in many places. But never before had they been out of power like they are today. There is only one way to fix this – a leadership should emerge which will form a new alliance by taking a large number of Hindus along. The Hindus of India had chosen constitutional secularism, hence the responsibility to save it also lies with them. Only he who can build a relationship of trust with Hindus will be able to challenge the BJP. The Hindu-Muslim divide in parties is now more clear… Muslim voters are no longer necessary for BJP. In such a situation, can only a Hindu-led political alliance challenge it in the elections? Because it is clear that the Hindu-Muslim divide between BJP and secular parties has now become stronger. (These are the author’s own views)
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Shekhar Gupta’s Column: Are Muslims marginalized in politics now?
