With the departure of seven Rajya Sabha MPs from Aam Aadmi Party to BJP, Punjab’s front has opened even before the noise of the recent assembly elections has subsided. Keep in mind that ‘AAP’ was the fourth largest party in the Rajya Sabha. This is no small achievement for a new party formed just a decade ago. In comparison, Sharad Pawar’s NCP and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena also have only one MP each in the Rajya Sabha. But after the exit of seven MPs, now only three members of AAP are left in Rajya Sabha. AAP is planning to challenge this change in the court. Unless the court immediately stays the decision of these seven MPs, they will continue to be members of the BJP. This situation is going to remain the same till the final decision of the court. Probably by then his Rajya Sabha tenure would also have ended. Experience shows that defection cases continue in courts for years. Even though this may have led to the need to review the anti-defection law, for now this development will have an impact on the future of AAP, its government in Punjab, Kejriwal’s leadership and the situation of BJP and Congress in Punjab. If we see, the increase of seven MPs in BJP’s account in Rajya Sabha will give it a lot of relief, but despite this it still has 10 seats less than the majority in the House. This development has given a big blow to AAP, which was looking weak after last year’s defeat in the Delhi Assembly elections. The defection of so many MPs will affect the morale of the workers and questions will be raised on Kejriwal’s ability to keep the party united. The party’s morale will also be affected in Punjab, where elections are going to be held next year. In Punjab, AAP has a strong majority of 94 out of 117 seats. The party leadership is now worried about how to protect MLAs from horse-trading. AAP MLAs are alert and if experts are to be believed, they are also keeping an eye on each other as to who is in contact with Raghav Chadha and the leaders who have joined BJP. The importance of Chadha, who switched sides, and Sandeep Pathak, Kejriwal’s key strategist, is not because they will gather grassroots support for the BJP, because they are not public leaders at all. Yes, Chadha definitely has some appeal among students and first time voters. Chadha had taken the responsibility of Punjab elections in 2022 and Pathak was very trustworthy of Kejriwal. He even looked after all other important work including ticket distribution. That’s why both of them know AAP MLAs well in Punjab. It is said that after leaving the party, he has contacted many MLAs. So can he create rebellion among AAP MLAs in Punjab? Especially, among the MLAs who did not get ministerial or any other post and who are dissatisfied? Can this lead to the fall of the government and imposition of President’s rule before the elections? At present it is too early to say anything on this. This question can also be asked that in these changed circumstances, can there be an ‘Eknath Shinde’ in Punjab’s ‘AAP’, who can change the political equations and BJP can benefit from it? Well, all this is just speculation, but discussions have already started regarding BJP’s game plan in Punjab. Instead of relying on traditional caste equations, BJP can now try to establish its hold on issues among the public. He had lost land in Punjab after the farmers’ movement of 2020-21. Its oldest ally Shiromani Akali Dal parted ways with it. Although talks have been going on between the two, no results have been achieved. Till recently, BJP was believing that since it is not in a position to be strong in Punjab till 2027 elections, it would be better if Bhagwant Mann remains in power. Because she did not want Congress to return to this border state. However, ‘Operation-7’ is now being seen as a change in BJP’s strategy regarding Punjab. The thinking of the party is changing. This could be the beginning of not only breaking AAP in Rajya Sabha, but also making BJP a strong contender in the 2027 Punjab Assembly elections. Till some time ago, BJP was believing that it would be better if Bhagwant Mann remained in power in Punjab. She did not want Congress to return to this state. But now there is a change in BJP’s strategy regarding Punjab. (These are the author’s own views)
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Neerja Chaudhary’s column: BJP’s strategy regarding Punjab is now changing
