Even in normal times, no one in Punjab would be ready to believe that there would be no politics behind the way the OTT film ‘Sutlej’ was suddenly withdrawn after its release. Why was the film withdrawn within 48 hours? Everyone should know that once it is made in digital form it will be widely displayed. There is speculation in Punjab that elections may be held there early next year. So who stands to benefit most from this controversy? And who is going to be hurt the most by this? Firstly, this film, centered on a man who investigates ‘fake encounters’ after the start of militancy, may give new life to an old complaint. The film may rekindle that anger. Secondly, the attempt made to make militants heroes cannot be hidden. Pay attention to the way the incident of assassination of Chief Minister Beant Singh on 31 August 1995 has been presented in the film. In this scene, that couplet is being sung, which has been written on the occasion of martyrdom in war. Third, the film will anger youth who have no experience of the past decade of terrorism, and will especially appeal to religious and conservative groups. And fourthly, watching the film it seems that there is a personal fight going on between the militants and the police on screen. A large section of voters are already angry with mainstream political leaders, especially the Akalis. Now after watching the movie ‘Sutlej’, these voters became even more angry and refrained from returning to Akali Dal. It is more likely that they will support the extremists. This conservative group will definitely not move towards Congress or AAP party. Therefore, only one party is going to benefit. Power in Punjab has been going to Congress, Akali Dal and AAP alternately. The fourth force is the extremists, although of course they are limited. They can become part of an alliance only if the Akalis win one-third of the total seats, which looks impossible. The Akalis’ votes have been divided, so they may be further marginalized. AAP has to deal with discontent against its government. Congress is embroiled in internal strife. If Hindu votes unite in this turmoil, it will only benefit BJP. The politics of Punjab will have to be seen in the light of its population patterns. The Sikh population in Punjab is 58 percent and they are undoubtedly the majority, but the 40 percent Hindu population is also important. If the Sikh vote gets divided and the Hindu vote gets united then this state can take an unimaginable turn. We can break these groups into more pieces. Among the Sikhs, 60 percent of the population are Jatts, who constitute about 25 percent of the total population of the state. Their votes are divided between Akalis, extremists and anti-Congress camps. If most of their votes go towards extremists then Akali Dal will be wiped out and AAP or Congress will get the benefit. Therefore, BJP wants to consolidate the Hindu vote, as it did in Bengal and Assam. If it gets 70 percent Hindu votes, then it will be in advantage in the situation created by the division of votes into five parts. But the Dalit vote in Punjab is a force which has not been properly assessed. The broad estimate is that the Dalit vote here is around 33 percent, which includes both Sikhs and Hindus. This vote among Sikhs is about 35 percent. Congress has traditionally had a strong hold on Dalit votes, but AAP has made a dent in it. The influence of many Babas and Deras on this vote bank is also an important aspect. BJP has been working for a long time to strengthen this vote bank. The Prime Minister is going to visit Punjab. He will inaugurate Jalandhar’s new railway station, but the notable political move will be a possible visit to Dera Sachkhand Ballan, the ‘chair’ of Sant Niranjan Das Ji. Saint Niranjan Das ji is considered the spiritual guru of Ravidasi Dalit community. In the Hindi belt, which is called Jatav community, the proportion of that community among the Dalits of Punjab is about 50 percent. This time on Republic Day, the name of Sant Niranjan Das ji was included among those honored with Padma Shri. So you can calculate. The next step is to reach the voter list. After separation from Akali Dal over agricultural laws, BJP decided to go alone in Punjab. This was a suicidal move. BJP got only 6.6 percent votes in the 2022 assembly elections. But in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, its vote percentage increased to 18.65. This also looks impressive because Congress and AAP got 26-26 percent votes and Akali Dal got 13.48 percent votes, while the conservative Sikh votes went into the hands of extremists. Now they are in direct combat mode. You can understand why they are screening the film ‘Sutlej’ in every village. BJP feels that if it gets 30 percent votes, gathers maximum votes in 55 constituencies dominated by Hindus and gets the support of Dalits with the help of Deras, then it can become the largest party in the state. This mathematics seems simple, and so for some time it may find it profitable to risk a new rise of extremism. She may also believe that she will be able to suppress the bulge soon. We should note that Akalis are welcoming ‘Sutlej’, others are silent, while only BJP’s Ravneet Singh Bittu is criticizing it. You can say that he is doing this because he is the grandson of former Chief Minister Beant Singh. But if you are thinking that any BJP leader can speak in a different tone without the consent of the party, then you are undoubtedly very naive. A political turn is possible; the politics of Punjab will have to be seen in the light of the patterns of its population. The Sikh population in Punjab is 58 percent and they are undoubtedly the majority, but the 40 percent Hindu population is also important. If the Sikh vote gets divided and the Hindu vote gets united then this state can take an unimaginable turn. (These are the author’s own views.)
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Shekhar Gupta’s column: There is no less complexity in the politics of Punjab.
