Shekhar Gupta Column: Will History Repeat Itself?

Shekhar Gupta, Editor-in-Chief, ‘The Print’

History repeats itself. If we look at what is happening today, it will seem that there are signs of the return of the historical crisis that occurred in 1973. Well, we wouldn’t call it the sound of doom right now. Because, India has become very strong in the last 53 years.

Indira Gandhi won the 1971 elections with an overwhelming majority. Together with its allies CPI and DMK, it had won a total of 80 percent seats. In the same year they defeated Pakistan and Bangladesh was born. Next year, out of 19 states and union territories, he won decisively in 15 of them.

The four states she missed – Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Goa – were small states. Mizoram and Goa were still union territories at that time. Indira Gandhi was at the peak of her power and glory at that time. No Indian leader has achieved such unchallenged power. Narendra Modi is close to his equal.

But circumstances changed dramatically. Earlier, the monsoon in India failed for two consecutive years in 1972–73. India had also faced this in 1965-66. This wiped out the gains made by the Green Revolution in an economy that had been predominantly agricultural until then. In 1973, the Yom Kippur War occurred and West Asian countries used oil as a weapon for the first time, giving rise to an oil crisis. Oil shortages and rising prices deepened the drought crisis. The anger of the youth of India started boiling, which first erupted in Gujarat.

Everyone was affected by the economic crisis: unemployment, rents and rising inflation. The spark in this matter was the increase in mess fees of college hostels. It took the form of an anti-corruption movement against the then Chief Minister Chimanbhai Patel.

Soon, student leaders like Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar in Bihar started a strong movement against inflation and corruption with the formation of ‘Chhatra Sangharsh Samiti’. He handed over the leadership of the movement to Jayaprakash Narayan (JP).

Indira Gandhi took several steps in response to this. Chimanbhai Patel was removed. Abdul Ghafoor remained on the chair in Bihar till 1974, but he too had to leave in April 1975. In the summer of 1974, Indira Gandhi conducted the first nuclear test, ‘Pokaran-1’.

He raised concerns about conspiracies by foreign forces, especially the CIA, to destabilize his government. But she could not change the mood of the public in any way. The mood could not be changed, as unemployment had reached its peak and inflation was touching 29 percent in 1974.

In September this figure had reached 34.68 percent. Who could reverse such a tsunami? In such a situation, Indira Gandhi imposed Emergency, which remains like a permanent stain on our democracy, and in the end even this could not save her. He faced defeat in a fair election in 1977.

Now consider the events of the last 18 months and look to the future. The oil crisis along with the war in West Asia is once again giving shocks. Foreign portfolio investors are moving out in a big way. Due to this, 20 billion dollars have gone out of the country. Many big Indian companies are investing abroad, due to which the figure of ‘FDI’ is overall zero. All this has, ironically, put pressure on the rupee despite a weakening dollar.

In the last years of the UPA government, BJP made a big mistake by making the ‘strength’ of the rupee an issue. Now this is backfiring for her and she is feeling the anxiety of a cricket batsman in the ‘nervous nineties’. The government fears that the value of the rupee against the dollar may cross the 100 mark. But the health of your currency will depend on the logic of the global market and your economy. We should have taken a lesson from China, which had already understood that it is beneficial to keep its currency weak.

The shock given by oil is a repeat of 1973. The government will ultimately pass the burden of the increase in prices on consumers. Inflation will increase, and unemployment will become more acute. Talking about the failure of the monsoon in 1973, we also have to pay attention to the warning that this is an El Nino year and we do not know what form it will take. The share of agriculture in our GDP is much less today than it was in 1973, but more people are affected by the agricultural crisis than any other country. Therefore, keep an eye on people’s mood.

Some signs are quite clear. The controversy over NEET highlights this anger. Our government talks about ease of doing business. But consider the cruelty of competing for a limited number of jobs or employment opportunities.

Indian youth is trapped in the maze of exams ranging from CAT, NEET, JEE, CLAT, UPSC to NDA, IMA and Agniveer and now even CUET for admission in colleges. This is hitting the savings of the already distressed middle class and trapping the lower middle class in the quagmire of debt. And, finally you find out that some fraudsters have gamed the entire system, the exams are being cancelled, and you have to go through all the trouble again. Imagine how angry these youth must be. Especially when they find that the government’s answer is boring that we will put those fraudsters in jail and conduct the exam again. People are helpless before this vicious cycle that is repeated again and again. Is this anger as sharp as it was against rising mess fees in colleges in Gujarat in 1973-74 or inflation in Bihar? It is difficult to tell. But the huge surge in support of ‘Cockroach Janata Party’ definitely gives some indication.

The rising anger among the youth… Is the anger emerging among the youth today as sharp as it was in 1973-74 against the rising mess fees of colleges in Gujarat or inflation in Bihar? Well, it is very difficult to tell this right now. But the huge surge in support of ‘Cockroach Janata Party’ definitely gives some indication. (These are the author’s own views)

Make Dainik Bhaskar your favorite source on Google ➔