Exit Poll Predictions: Vote Share Crucial Over Seats

Sanjay Kumar, professor and political commentator

The exit polls released for Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Bengal and Puducherry on the evening of 29 April could not be a reason for solace for many leaders and parties. The reason is, the exit poll projections for at least two states – Tamil Nadu and Bengal – are quite different from each other. But in Assam and Kerala, there appears to be a broad consensus among almost all the agencies as to which party or alliance is winning.

Most exit polls give a decisive lead to the BJP-led alliance in Assam, while it indicates a victory for the Congress-led UDF in Kerala. But there is uncertainty regarding the results in Bengal and Tamil Nadu. Some agencies have even considered it appropriate to postpone releasing the exit poll estimates for Bengal, because the second phase of voting there ended only on April 29 and they want to take some time to understand the data better.

I would call this a wise decision, because sometimes voting continues even till the end of the official time due to long queues. However, it should also be remembered that waiting one more day does not guarantee that the seat estimates will become more accurate. After all, in Tamil Nadu, polling ended on April 23 and agencies had enough time to carefully analyze the data, yet estimates from different agencies differ from each other there too.

Almost all exit polls for Assam and Kerala are pointing in the same direction, but that is not because the agencies had exceptionally more time for data collection and analysis. There could be several reasons behind this – such as relatively less political competition, the nature of the challenge posed by the opposition to the ruling party or coalition, and other factors. Still, the exit polls from Assam and Kerala need to be read carefully.

All exit polls had missed the 2024 Lok Sabha elections; He had estimated more than 400 seats for the NDA. Similarly, there was consensus among almost all the agencies about a big victory of Congress in the 2024 Haryana elections. The same situation was seen in the 2023 Chhattisgarh elections, where the exit polls predicted a definite victory for the Congress. The success record of exit polls in Bihar assembly elections was mixed. Many had predicted the NDA’s victory, but no one had predicted such a huge victory.

Exit poll projections in Tamil Nadu appear to be somewhat complex. Of the four exit polls I came across, three have predicted a victory for the DMK alliance, placing the AIADMK alliance at second and the Vijay-led TVK at third, with one exit poll in the context of Tamil Nadu standing out as an exception.

The state which has held the breath of most people is Bengal. The elections there were fought in extremely tough contests. Most of the exit polls made public so far are predicting a BJP victory in Bengal, although here too there is one exit poll which stands out as an exception to the trend.

It is difficult to say at this time how accurate these projections will prove to be compared to the actual results on May 4. But I believe that if the pollsters are proved wrong, it may be mainly due to errors in vote-share estimation. Even a small change in vote percentage can make a big difference in the number of seats.

We have seen elections where a party has won more seats despite having a lower vote-percentage than its rival. This complexity increases further in our electoral system – the first past the post system. In this, whether a candidate wins by one vote or by one lakh votes, in both the cases he gets only one seat.

Recent exit polls, especially in the context of Tamil Nadu and Bengal, have instead increased the confusion and anxiety rather than providing an indication of how the votes will be cast. This time the number of exit polls is also relatively less. (These are the author’s own views)

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